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Old 09-07-2001, 12:47 PM
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John


There's some truth in what you say,however, there are also some big mistakes.Lets take an example;Warren Buffett bought Coca-Cola share in 1988 when he saw that their international sales were exploding internationally he bought more shares in 1992 and still holds all those shares today. He has owned those shares for 13 years through thick and thin. Recently Coca-cloa shares have not done well yet he still owns the shares why? Shouldn't he sell all those shares since there were times when Cokes shares were overvalued even according to him.He did not do it because he bought a great company at a great price and has held on through all those ups and downs in the market because those temporary tremors come and go in the market. He has made a lot of money on Coke somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-20% compounded and paid no taxes.


You say market timing is the only way to go well i think we have a different definition of market timers.Joe Granville is a market timer,Richard Ney is and i could list many more and their results have been terrible.However,in a way the guy that buys seasoned companies when their out of favor are sort of market timers yet they are not tryng to predict where the market is going.Let me give another example;last year if you would have been a market timer you would have said stay out of stocks because the market is going down and you would have been 100%correct. Yet the investor that bought the property/casualty companies has doubled his money in the same period that the market went down and would have missed a big move.Instead the investor who focused on buying quality companies when their out of favor and let the market take care of itself would have proved again the benefits of this approach.


People constantly try to take a simple approach and make it complicated.I've given many examples and backed what i have said. Yet i have no examples from the people who have responded. Show me the market timers that have made money and kept it.I hear talk but i see no facts.Lar
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