Wasted bet on the river?

[Nate tha' Great]

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Once in a great while you can isolate against SB with a draw and win unimproved when neither of you makes anything.

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SB will bet betting out with a draw here pretty often. When that's what SB does, raising is far and away the best play. If the players behind him want to cold call with a pair or something, that's fine because Hero has a shitload of equity against their hand. If they want to fold middle pair, that's even better, since Hero has radically increased his chance of winning the hand.

If SB has a better hand then Hero, raising is at worst a tiny mistake:

1) There's no guarantee that the players were going to overcall to begin with.
2) There's no guarantee that they *aren't* going to cold call two bets, and Hero gains immediate equity on the raise once one of them does.
3) If all of them fold, the raise likely buys the Hero a free card.
4) There is a small but material importance to the possibility of eliminating hands like J9, A9 or KT.

In other words, I think the EV calc looks something like this:

Case A. SB is betting out with a draw. Raising is hugely advantageous, possibly +1.0 BB.

Case B. SB is betting out with a made hand. Raising is slightly disadvantageous, possibly -0.1 BB.

A raise is in order.