Challanging Ed Miller's Criticism of Lee Jones

[Leavenfish]

I understand that Bayes Theorem deals with discerning the probability of one event happening given that another does. But instead of shouting the magic words "Bayes Theorem", could someone actually use some math to explain how it applies to the actual situation in question? We have a low limit game like occurs on Party Poker where most everyone tends to stay in to see the flop with an Ace/Any (I believe the odds are somewhere near 80% that someone in a 10 handed game was dealt an Ace); two people then call when an Ace appears on the flop and the guy with KK has bet...seems perfectly logical given the kind of game you are playing in and the calling of the bet when an Ace has flopped and given that there is such a good chance of someone playing an Ace/whatever...why would you think it only that "sometimes" you are up against AA as opposed to "probably"?