The old coin-flip debate

[Jsb]

in your calculations you came out with that Hero had a 55% chance of getting first, a 22.5% chance of second, and a 22.5% chance of third. i think Phil was talking about those percentages in particular. i don't know how to do most of this statistics stuff yet, but it seems against my intuition for hero to have an equal chance of catching second and third. In this case that one of the lesser players gets first, you say that Hero has an equal chance of getting either second or third, but my instinct is that he has a greater chance of getting second than third. my instinct could very well be wrong, it just strikes me as kind of odd. and i think that was what phil was saying as well.