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overbet the pot?
ill try to keep it simple, since its an situation that comes up a lot.
$1/2 NL HE game on UB (very loose, but no specific reads yet). UTG+1 limps, i limp in LP w/ 910o, button calls, SB completes, BB checks. flop is 2 9 10, 9 and 10 both hearts. checked to me, I bet pot, $10. Button calls, everyone else folds. Turn is a blank (4 or a 5). Pot is now $30. I bet pot again, button cold calls again. Flop is a Q, no flush, and I check. Button goes all in for about $50. I think for a while, call, he turns over Q10 hearts (he had flopped top pair and a flush draw). I called for a few reasons on the river. I'm not worried he flopped a set, since, though he might have cold called the flop, theres no way he's going to cold call again on the turn with straight-flush cards on the board. Can't have hit a set on the turn (wouldnt have called the flop) or the river (would have raised preflop with QQ). So the only hands I can think are J8 (but he probably wouldnt have called a pot sized with just a straight draw on the turn), KJ (overcards and a gutshot, but probably not gonna call the turn) a missed flush draw (with a pair mixed in that kept him in on the turn, hopefully not w/ a queen kicker...) or even KQ, since the clowns at the $1/2 are liable to call pot sized bets on the turn with overcards. i never bet more than the pot after the flop, but maybe thats where i went wrong. i probably would have taken it down then and there. since before the action on the turn i'm worried he cold called with a set, i'm hesitant to overbet the pot. bet half the pot and fold to a raise (he's reprsenting a set)? but that gives him a cheaper shot at chasing a flush. what do you guys think? |
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