Why 10,000 hands? Well....

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

I don't usually post in this forum, but this topic isn't unique to any one game. I've noticed a common phenomenon, both in my own results and in comments I read from others. It goes something like this:

You're a reasonably competent player. That is, you have some idea of starting hand requirements, drawing odds, pot odds, and the like, and while you're hardly an expert, you at least have a good sense of what you're doing. You pick a new game, or a new stakes, and begin playing. And you win ... a lot ... a WHOLE lot. You may wonder why everyone else thinks this game is so difficult, because it's so damn easy!

And then ... suddenly ... you lose. A lot. A whole lot. Maybe half of what you've won. Maybe all of it. You now wonder if you're a complete idiot for ever having thought you knew how to play. At first it seems like the cards, but obviously as time goes on you realize that can't be all of it. You see other people win on marginal hands, and you see your opponents play marginal hands against each other, but when you get into a pot, they either fold and you win nothing, or they take you to the river with the nuts or something very close to it. You've gone from winning big pots and losing small ones to winning only the small pots and losing all of the big ones. Uggh....

I think this is a pretty common experience for many players, and I've thought about it at some length over the past few weeks. I think it's also the reason people say you need at least 10,000 hands of experience before you can begin to infer anything from your results. And I think I know why it happens.

Back in those early days, when you first decided to try this game (or these stakes), none of your opponents knew you. And many poker players share a common weakness: they assume any unknown player is a fish. So your opponents would call your opening raises with weak hands, or bet into you with marginal holdings, thinking you were playing junk like all the other fish. But since you are competent, you are going to win ... a lot ... at first....

Within a few sessions, however, the brighter opponents have notes on you. They know what starting hands you generally like to play, and have some idea of how you play them. But more to the point, they recognize that you're a competent player, and make a note that they're going to need a real hand to tangle with you in a big pot. So they stop calling your open raises with trash, and they stop betting marginal hands at you. They also learn your common bluffs, and pick them off. And you start to lose ... a lot....

It's not that your luck has changed, or that the cards have gone against you. It's not even that you're playing all that badly. It's simply that competent opponents have learned to respect your game, and they're not throwing money at you anymore. The golden age is over. Now you'll have to work for your money.

Of course, if you're reasonably competent, you've also been building data on your opponents. You know what hands they like to play, and have some idea of how they play them. You know who the consistent winners are, and you try not to get into a tangle with them unless you have the goods. You also start to study your own tendencies, and look for ways to mix up your game, to be less predictable, even for those opponents whom you see regularly. The more you do these things -- study your opponents, dodge the sharks, and mix up your play -- the more you see your bankroll start to build again.

But not like at first. The good news is, while you're not winning as much as you were before, what you're seeing now is perhaps more stable and predictable.

And by now, you've probably played about 10,000 hands at that game.

Cris