SnG results (late game)

[skaboomizzy]

A few more mitigating factors:

I really respect you guys, you're all excellent players and this isn't in any way meant to be a dig or insult at you.

But in the early stages (first three or four orbits) of tournaments like KotZ or these SnGs, the play is very, very predictable. Usually a preflop raise takes down the pot. If it's called and the raiser bets again on the flop, it ends there a lot of the time as well. If it's re-raised pre-flop, it usually goes to the re-raiser.

When Tim called my re-raise pre-flop, I knew he had SOMETHING. He's not just splashing around with a junk hand. As I said, somehow I came up with A-face suited for his hand.

The flop is frightening. After he check-raised, I had three likely outcomes.

1) He flopped his flush right there. I don't think he'd push in that early without hitting the nuts, we were both right around 1500 in chips to start the hand, and I don't believe anyone had yet busted out in either table. (about 60% likelihood)

2) He's got the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], he might just be trying to push me out. Nothing made yet, but he's got 9 outs. (30%)

3) He's got pocket Ks and has flopped a set and is willing to put his tournament on the line with that. I don't yet know what he's put me on yet, but he doesn't have me on A-A or a made flush. (10%)

The 450 bet of mine on the flop was designed to give me an escape if he pushed it in. If he folded, the pot was mine. If he called and a blank came on the turn, I probably would've moved him in. If he called and a diamond came on the turn, I was gonna be out of the hand.

I admit I mis-read, but it wasn't by much. At best for me, in my mind he has 9 outs (in reality it was 11 with the two black kings). At worst for me, he's already made the nuts and I'm drawing virtually dead.

If it's later in the tournament, I call. If I have him outchipped to the point that I can survive losing the hand, I call. If there's only two diamonds on the flop, I call. But everything just kinda added up wrong for me on that hand, so I let it go and proceeded to play on with a stack of around 950 or so.

I'm not expecting everyone to say "Oh wow, he's right!" or anything. This is just a glimpse into my thought process on that one particular situation.

Edit to add: It was a great bet by Tim. Credit where it's due.