Good play / Bad Luck or bad play?

Fairly loose 15-30 home game. I have QQ UTG and I raise. Two to my left calls(LP). He's a loose player who frequently calls raises w/ weaker hands(QT and better, all pocket pairs, suited A's), fold to the button who calls and blinds fold. Pot : 7.5SB.


Flop : J23 rainbow. I bet, LP calls, button folds. LP is the kind of player who will put a raiser on big cards and call down any pair if lower cards flop. He calls too much and but does bluff enough that I call him down sometimes. Pot : 9.5 SB.


Turn : 8. Board : J238 rainbow. I check. I'm thinking that his most likely hand is a weaker jack. J10, QJ, J9s something like that or either bigger cards that missed or a pocket pair. If he's got bigger cards or a pair, he's got 2 or 3 outs so I won't lose often. I felt 100% sure that he'd bet the Jack and then pay off my check-raise and bet on the river giving me 3 BB's, instead of 0 if he had big cards, 2 if he had a jack. I think he'd pay me off all the way w/ pocket pair if an A or K didn't hit. He checks behind. No terrible I'm thinking. I'll get called by his pocket pair on the river.


River : A. Board: J238A rainbow. He doesn't look thrilled about the A. I bet b/c I'd call since he could bet a jack now since I checked on the turn, thinking I had TT, 99, or similar. He calls and shows me A2s, which he said he'd have folded for a bet on the turn.


Any comments?