"Discounted" Outs: Discussion and Questions

[brianmarc]

I recently came across the concept of "discounted" outs. It is a measure of the likelihood your hand will actually win the pot if your draw hits. For example, there are 6 outs to a flush draw; if the board is paired the likelihood of your flush standing up, should it hit, is less than if the board is unpaired. This is due to the increased likelihood of a FH in the former situation. So, if the chances of you winning the pot with an unpaired board is, say, 95% (not 100% since the board could still pair), you would use 6*85%= 5.7 outs (these are your discounted outs) in your assessment of the required pot odds; in the case of the board being paired, your likelihood of success may now be 85%, so your discounted outs are 6*85%=4.8.

My questions are: What do you thik of this concept? Has anyone created or seen a table that shows the correct discount values for various hand combinations for the flop and for the turn? Can anyone describe a method for correclty calculating the discount values, beyond the "gut feel" approach?