Results from my last 277 SnG's (Help?)

[Bozeman]

Is my goal (50% ROI at $109 SnGs) attainable?

After a great november and a long breakeven stretch, I am not doing as well as I'd hoped in $109 SnGs.

I have played 277 at Party, and here is how my money has gone:


The green line shows $50/SnG, still less than my goal of $54.5. The blue line shows my current average $32.9. This graph shows the immense possibility for variability in results, such that 300 may not provide a good measure of win rate. In addition, 100 may not tell you statistically if you are playing good or bad. I realize the great run at the beginning is not sustainable, but I thought I could stay closer to that.

I think I have identified some of the factors involved in my long flat stretch, unfortunately one of them seems to table selection, which was never very important at $55s. I also have identified a few small leaks that I believe I have plugged.

In addition, my finish histogram looks like this:


I am very disappointed, because I have always at lower buyins had a smoothly decreasing function, but now I am getting less than 15% 1st's. The drop from 2nd to 1st sems to be statistically significant. I realize that a good player will usually reach headsup without a chip lead, but it seems that the level of shorthanded play at these is reasonably good: no one seems to make the horrendous mistake of folding too many hands, while many did at the $55 level. Still, I see some room for improvement. Any suggestions? I also am bothered that the slope is not that large. Am I playing too loose early? Am I stealing incorrectly? Am I playing the wrong kind of speculative hands? Am I not being selective enough about tables? Anyone else want to share their histogram?

I always looked at 50% ROI as a goal to surpass before moving up in levels. Has its usefulness decreased? Should I try the $215 level?

Any other thoughts?
Thanks,
Craig