Situation I think I get wrong every time

[Guy McSucker]

Thanks to everyone for some interesting replies.

Here is what I was thinking when I posted. Consider the (perhaps) simpler situation in which you have aces rather than queens, and the flop comes JJ4 without a flush draw.

My knee-jerk move is to put the opponent all-in and expect to take the pot on the flop most of the time. I started to wonder if this is perhaps wrong, and that what I should do is check behind and attempt to induce a bluff or mistaken value bet from a worse hand.

If I move in, I will probably only be called if I am losing, so I win the pot when I'm ahead and lose most of my stack when I am behind. If I check behind and get a bet out of him on the turn, which I call, then I win his whole stack when I am ahead and lose mine when behind. This is 2000 chips better than the previous situation.

However, this overlooks the chance that he draws out. With AA and no flush draw, it's going to be hard for him to draw out: he can have at most two outs I think. So in this situation, I do believe that checking behind to induce a bluff is better than moving in.

With QQ, he can have six outs if he has AK, and in any case, aces and kings are scare cards for me, so I will probably have to fold on the turn if I check the flop, an A or K falls, and he bets.

I am undecided about whether checking the flop is better than moving in in this case.

With the flush draw out there, there are a lot of potential scare cards/outdraw cards available for my opponent, if I am currently ahead. Fifteen cards will scare me, and of course there may be two more that turn his lower pocket pair into a full house. I would now prefer to take my chances that I'm winning, and bet all-in.

Cris analysed how much to bet in order to make it a mistake for him to call when behind, which isn't very much because he can't be sure of having clean outs. William points out that this small bet is likely to induce a bluff from the opponent, because it screams weakness. A great many opponents might read the bet of 400 or 600 as saying "oh no! AK missed the flop again!".

For that reason, I am now swayed towards making this small bet! It has several effects:

- it's a mistake for the opponent to call on a flush draw or underpair
- it might induce a bluff from a weaker hand on this street, which is an excellent outcome, or on the turn, which is what we want to do if we can
- a lot of the time people will give up on the flop if they have missed, which is what the all-in bet would achieve
- if we're behind, we're going to lose our stack anyway, so nothing changes in that situation.

I am starting to conclude that this might be the best move. Bet 600 or so, and call if he raises or bets the turn. Still not sure though.

Guy.