To Bet the River or not?

[rtrombone]

You have the first guy beat. MRBAA, how can you possibly put him on three aces or kings? He wouldn't have stopped raising when the best CJC can possibly have is three queens. He's got either aces up or kings up. CJC said he's decent, so he wouldn't go ape on 5th with a diamond draw.

So the first guy is going to pay you. This makes it a clear value bet. Who cares about the second guy? If he made his straight or flush, he's going to call you, and you lose. Fine. If he missed, he's going to fold, and you will make one big bet from the first guy.

According to TOP, you value bet when you are a favorite if called. Whatever draw the second guy had going into 7th, did he have a better than 50% chance of getting there? Not likely. He probably had a 20-40% chance of getting there. So 60-80% of the time he will have missed. 60-80% of the time you will make money on your bet from the first guy.

Of course, you may get raised. If the first guy raises you, he's got a boat. You should probably call because of the size of the pot, but I think better players than I would be able to lay your hand down. If the second guy raises you, he got there. If your read on this guy is so good that you know he wouldn't call you unless he has you beat, certainly you can fold to this raise, right?