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ODDs math question
I'm trying to get my mind around poker odds. Let's take an example.
What are the chances of getting 3 of a kind on the flop, if we have any pocket pair? Now, on the first flop card we have this chance: 2/50 = .04 Since we have 2 "outs" that would complete our trips, and there are 50 cards left in the deck after our hole cards are dealt to us. And for the 2nd flop card we have: 2/49 And for the 3rd flop card we have: 2/48 Now, here's where I'm having a problem. As I understand it, if any of 3 probabilities will get the desired result we ADD these 3 probablilties to get the probability that the needed event will occur within the 3 events. So, this would mean we'd add: 2/50 + 2/49 + 2/48 or .04+.041+.042 (last 2 rounded) or .123 or 12.3 % According to this web site: http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php The odds are 10.9% to flop 3 of a kind when we have any pocket pair. Where am I going wrong in my calculations? Thanks all. Eric |
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