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#9
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Absolutely push. Even if shorty has AAxx, the main pot is no longer your main concern. LAG is looking to isolate (although his bet size is puzzling) and you have an excellent opportunity to build a big side pot w/good equity.
Reminded me of this'n from last month: $100 PLO Seat 5: LAG (Button, $164.70) Seat 7: Hero (SB, $144.25) [Kd Ad 5h As] Seat 9: Shorty (UTG, $26.25) 2 folds, 2 calls, LAG raises $6 to $7, Hero calls $6.50, 1 fold, Shorty raises $19.25 to $26.25 and is all-in, 2 folds, LAG raises $63 to $89.25, Hero raises $55 to $144.25 and is all-in, LAG calls $55. As it turned out it was a near worst-case scenario for the main pot. Shorty did in fact have AAxx. LAG + Shorty had 3 of my diamonds, ruining what should have been my one strong side card. A world of hurt 3-way: pokenum -mc 500000 -o kd ad 5h as - 6c 6d 4d 3d - 8d ah 8c ac Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ad Kd 5h 74911 14.98 289763 57.95 135326 27.07 0.285 6c 6d 4d 3d 153178 30.64 346822 69.36 0 0.00 0.306 Ac 8c 8d Ah 136585 27.32 228089 45.62 135326 27.07 0.408 But the $236 side pot is a different story (note that I included Shorty's hand as dead cards): pokenum -mc 500000 -o kd ad 5h as - 6c 6d 4d 3d / 8d ah 8c ac Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV As Ad Kd 5h 303417 60.68 196583 39.32 0 0.00 0.607 6c 6d 4d 3d 196583 39.32 303417 60.68 0 0.00 0.393 p.s. LAG spiked a 6 and scooped. |
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