Results not important, please critique flop and turn play

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
Thus the call can only be correct if hero could have such a good read that the majority of the time the villain would not have a straight.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is way wrong.

Hero has to call $88 into a $301 pot.

When the Villain has the straight Hero's EV is $301*10/42 = $72

When the Villain doesn't have the straight, let's say 50% of the time he semibluffing and has on average 8 outs to a straight, and 50% of the time he's either drawing dead (or drawing to one card, the extremely unlikely, given the action, lower set)

So when villain doesn't have the straight, Hero's EV is $301*0.5 + 301*(34/42)*0.5 = $272

72*(1-x) + 272*x = 88 -----> x = .08.

So he has to have the straight greater than 92% of the time to make the call incorrect.

(Even if Villain has an average of ten outs (i.e. he *only* makes this bet with big straight draws and *never* with two pair or as a bluff), he still would have to have the straight about 90% of the time to make a call incorrect.)