Learning to think on the fly -- a test

[Rococo]

Hi guys,

Several initial thoughts. First, in a 4-handed game, you have flopped an absolute monster. You very likely are taking this hand to showdown, and you shouldn't be too concerned about pot control, even though you are out of position. The goal here should be to develop a plan that gets the money in the pot.

Second, this is not a good board to slowplay.

Third, I don't think that it is necessary, or even a good idea, to bet a standard amount on the flop against each opponent. Varying bets sizes here shouldn't leak too much information because your continuation bets when you miss should vary in size as well depending on opponents and board texture.

OK, on to the specific secenarios.

Scenario 1

This is the one player that I respect. I am inclined to bet somewhere around 3/4 pot to full pot. You should not assume that a call here means that this player does not have a draw because this player is sensitive to implied odds and he knows that he may stack you if he makes his draw on the turn and you have a big hand. Still, I want to charge him if he does have a good draw, so I want to make good-sized bet here. If an A, 9 or [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits on the turn, you are going to be in a tough spot. For that reason, I think that it is best, especially for beginning players, to push on the flop if Villain 1 reraises. If you call the raise, you probably aren't going to know what to do if a scare card hits on the turn, and you want to avoid situations where you could make a big mistake like folding on the turn if a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] hits and Villain has A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x. Moreover, if Villain is reraising with a hand like K3, KQ or AK, there are a lot of turn cards that could kill your action so best to get it in now. If Villain 1 reraises all-in, this will be a very big draw (rather than a set) most of the time and thus will be an auto call for you.

If Villain flat calls, I lead the turn. Villain is capable of bluffing, but probably won't do it often enough to risk giving a free card on the turn.

Scenario 2

This one is easy. Forget anything fancy and bet 3/4 of the pot (or full pot if you are sure Villain will call). A normal reraise could be a set, but might be a hand like AK. A reraise is unlikely to be a draw from this player, so I can live with a flat call of a reraise, or pushing, depending on whether Villain is the type that likes to put his money in the pot in installments or all at once. A reraise all-in means something very different from this player. It will usually be a scared set, probably 3s. You might be able to find a fold here, but it would be tough.

No matter what Villain does on the flop, I lead most turns.

Scenario 3

This player likes to bet, but I don't want to show a tremendous amount of strength early in this hand, so a big CR is out of the question. Check-call is unnecessarily cautious against this player. I see two viable lines. Bet full pot and push if Villain makes a big reraise. This is fine. The second line is sexier. Bet 40% of the pot or so, and try to draw a big reraise. A smallish bet here is likely to be read by your opponent as weakness (whereas Villain 1 might see it as strength) or maybe a draw trying trying to see a cheap turn. You may get reraised by a lone K, or a draw. Either way, if I underbet the flop, I am not pushing to a reraise.

If Villain calls my small bet on the flop, he probably doesn't have much at all. I probably just lead the turn and call a push unless the turn card is an A. His range is too wide to do anything else.

If Villain reraises my small bet on the flop, a CR all-in on the turn can be a nice play no matter what the turn card is. If it is a rag, Villain may call with top pair thinking that you are on a draw (remember, he likes to pick off bluffs). CR all-in on the turn is OK even if a scare card hits because it will look to Villain like a great card to bluff. In the case of a scare card, I still like a CR all-in better than check-call. Even a LAG can't be expected to bluff the river here, or call a river bet with middle pair, etc.