10/20 QQ

[Nick Royale]

I think the most likely hands for UTG+1 is TT-77. In a 6-handed pot I don't think a tight and rather passive player like this will raise with a flushdraw very often, but that's still a possibility. There's also a risk we're up against a set.

I think SBs range is rather big. Flushdraw with overs, overpair, sets, all are likely. We're definately ahead more often than not against these players. By calling the flop we're giving UTG+1 odds to call with his most likely hands, 77-TT, to spike a set. I think that would be a mistake, since we're ahead of SB more often than not (at least 75/25 imo).

I can see a point in calling the flop and raising the turn to charge draws, but I don't think SB and UTG+1 is on flush-/straightdraws often enough to justify that line.

Besides the plan to charge draws might backfire. If UTG+1 is on a flushdraw+overs he might cap for a freecard, a freecard at least I would offer him if he caps. If SB is on a flushdraw he might check the turn, making us unable to raise.

In either case we might and up in a tough spot on the turn. If we cap the flop and get raised on the turn or if we call the flop and get 3-betted on the turn I would be calling down crying knowing I'm about to lose.