PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion

[AngusThermopyle]

From their page:

Each player who answers ALL 40 questions correctly will share a GRAND PRIZE of $1,000,000!

Is [Ain't] the lottery. Each 40 for 40 person gets {a share of } the million.

Edited for my utter lack of reading comprehension. Duh.

Assuming all 70:30 picks:

The Biggie:

40 out of 40 is roughly 1 in a million (think 20 out of 20 on a 50:50 pick, which is 1 in 2 to 20th ). So EV of $1

Weekly:
5 out of 5 is roughly 1 in 6. Pays $100. EV of $16. For 8 weeks. Say $128.

4 out of 5 is roughly 1 in 2.75. Pays $50. EV of $18. For 8 weeks. Say $144.

So, if all the questions are 70:30 (doubtful, since there are only 4 more weeks of regular season [with lopsided games] to go, then 4 weeks of post-season play with less lopsided games), is the promo that bad for someone who normally plays at Party?

[[ hope all my math is right [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] ]]