Is there an easy Risk of Ruin formula?

[aargh57]

I'm going to try and clear a BJ bonus at a site and need to wager 80000 in bets to clear it. In my account I have $3200. I would like to know my risk of ruin if I used various bets, namely $25 and $50 bets. This article has a bunch of pretty complicated formulas that has me pretty confused. When they start talking about the function of x and stuff I start getting lost. Is there an easy formula to figure this stuff out?