Races - sometimes it's not a coinflip

You want 6 outs out of 48 cards (12.5%) ( you discount your cards and Vilain cards).

Thinking the way you do, you have 4 outs, but the other players have 2 * 7 cards so you have 4 outs out of 34 cards (.118%). If One of them has a PP, you have 5/34 = 14.7%.

I hope this is clear for you. You are seeing Ghosts!!!