Choose your seat (complex)

[Spicymoose]

I think between 3-4 would be better if seat 4 was an unknown, rather than what we have on him.

I am still a bit caught up on these small hand sample stats. I know 39 hands is not very many at all, and it is true that anyone of us could have his stats after 39 hands, but that does not mean that they mean nothing.

The fact that he has played more than 18 of his last 39 hands in our first observations of him means he is probably a bit looser than he should be. Our read could be completely off, and he might end up being a regular, or even tight player, but I think it is better to add probabilities to his stats, rather than just call them null and void. I don't know how to properly assess this probability, but I am sure it is possible somehow.

Just from my random speculation, I would guess that there is a only a 15% chance that his VPIP is under 20, 40% chance his VPIP is between 20-35, 25% chance his VPIP is 35-45, and 15% chance his VPIP is 45-55, and 5% chance his VPIP is over 55. These are just guesses, but I think there is a decent chance he is a loose player, even after only 39 hands.

If you had a player pegged at 85 VPIP after only 20 hands, would you think that meant anything?