5/10 QQ hand in SB

[W. Deranged]

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smooth calling with the intention of raising the turn seems better.


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Perfect spot for it.

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I disagree.

One thing I've noticed a lot from small stakes players, particularly weaker ones, is that they like to raise the flop with mediocre made hands, check the turn behind (even though that basically sucks), and call a river bet.

It's a tight-weak line that basically hopes to keep you from messing with them but also fails to protect their hand or extract max value from draws and such. I think part of the explanation is psychological: small stakes player don't like having to make tough decisions on the big bet streets, they don't like getting check-raised, and so forth.

So the fact that the board is drawless DOES NOT mean that villain is never going to check the turn.

Basically, when the turn checks through and we only make 2 BB total instead of 3.5, we lose a lot of value. The advantage of check-raising the turn is only .5 BB over just three-betting the flop and leading from there.

So we're risking 1.5 BB to make .5, meaning we need to be at least 75% sure villain will check the turn.

Add in the fact that check-raising gives an observant opponent any easy opportunity to fold and may slow down an aggro. type who'll raise a worse hand on the flop or turn, and I think there's no question that three-betting and leading is much better here.