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Hypothetical Pot odds in tourney Question
Hypothetical situation:
Hand 1 of a SNG. I flop the nut flush draw. W/raising going on before I act the pot is now giving me 3:1 on my money to call off 1/3 of my stack trying to hit a flush. Lets say - for the sake of this question - I accidentally SEE the one players hand. Ax for TPTK. I know this player to overvalue TPTK so my FE = 0. Plus,my ace is no good as a winning out. I need a flush. THis is what I am struggling with at the moment. WHICH decision has more value: a) Calling. 1/3 of the time I hit my flush and end up having 3,000 in chips (or more probably with implied odds.) Meaning 2/3 of the time I lose 1/3 of my chips early on. -or- b) Folding my priced in draw. Meaning 3/3 times I Don't lose 1/3 of my stack early on. I sacrifice the one time gaining on chips for the two times of losing chips. Which has more value and why? (Lets pretend that I know for a fact the turn would check around giving me a chance to draw to my flush to both cards.) |
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