Hypothetical Hand: 99 top set

[shant]

You are getting called down by AA when you raise the turn a lot more than you think. The TAG will reason that he has outs against a 2-pair hand and that he has under-represented his hand preflop, so you could be giving action with smaller over-pairs or TPGK. I don't think that worrying about this guy folding AA to a turn raise should be a factor here.