Calling a preflop raise with KK

[Bozeman]

I was curious about the recent threads advocating a call with a high pair preflop in an effort to decrease the amount you lose when an ace flops. I know that this goes against the conventional wisdom, but I thought the math should be examined.

First, let's say you have KK. Suppose you raise preflop, and are reraised (all others fold). This puts x in the pot if you call now, leaving you with y left (or your opponent with y left, and you with more). I've done the most detailed math with x=y, that is you have enough for a pot sized bet left if you call. Let's assume you never fold preflop.

The mathematical results are included in the followup post, but since it is pretty long, I would like to summarize the most interesting results.

First, if your opponent will fold every hand except AA to another preflop raise (and has a finite chance of having AA), you will do better by calling, but this difference is small (~1%).

Second, if you opponent is as likely to have a PP as to have Ax, you will do better raising than calling essentially regardless of how they play postflop.

If your opponent is twice as likely to have Ax as to have a dominated PP, you can do better by calling, if he will always bet the flop or he will play the Ax very aggressively postflop, but will check/fold the PP if overcards flop (and no set).

If you call, you would much rather face aggressive play postflop, and facing opponents who are aggressive (loose) postflop with Ax is much better for you than aggression with PP's.

The best cases stand to make you ~10% more than raising, but the worst cases can cost you 20%+.

So it is, in my opinion, possible to have a read on your opponent that makes the call the smarter play (note, calculations are using chip EV, so there may be additional situations to do it because of money EV in tournament play). Still, you are not very wrong to always raise here.

Craig