Calculating the % Change of Winning X SNG's Consecutively?

[dabluebery]

Ok, I need some math help. In a 9 person SNG for an average player, your chances of winning X number of tournaments in a row is simple math, (1/9)^x. Pretty easy, and pretty indicative that winning 4 or 5 in a row is pretty unlikely.

However, I'm interested in the % chance of a person winning 4 or 5 sng's in a row over a long period, say 100 or 1000 sng's. I don't know how to do math like this, and the only thing I can think would be to Montecarlo it using Excel, which is kinda crappy.

Any help is much appreciated.