Free-Raising weak opponents.

[akishore]

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For starters, I think you're being too generous with counting 11.5 outs. You said it yourself, you lose a couple with the overs. I'd say you have 1.5 for each overcard, 1.5 for your backdoor flush, and maybe 2-3 for any 4 giving you a baby straight (it also might give someone else a straight).

That's at best, 7.5 outs, which may or may not change your line.

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This is really wrong. This is a heads-up pot for crying out loud, not four-way or five-way. How can you lose outs for BOTH your overs against one opponent as high as 50% of the time?? Then at the same time, you're losing outs for your straight so that you are up against 6x or Ax while at the same time being reverse dominated???

That means you're saying your opponent has exactly A-x or J-x where the x is a pair, but then card frequency says you only lose 1 out for the straight. If you lose more for the straight (i.e. he can have 6-x), then you gain more for your overcards.

The worst realistic case is being up against A5. Here, you lose 3 ace outs and 2 straight outs. That's 5 outs lost for a total of 6.5. But to assume you're this weak the majority of the time (what is needed to get an average estimated outs of 7.5, which is what you got), is extremely weak/tight thinking.

To the OP, I think your question is best answered with an elindauer triple. I think raise/call/fold should be something like {60, 40, 0} or maybe {75, 25, 0}.

Aseem