Dreaded stats request . . . 20/40+. Going to showdown.

[Surfbullet]

Hey Grisgra,

I'm currently at:
W$WSF: 44%
WTSD: 36%
W$SD: 54%

I'm breakeven over 6.5k (meaningless sample) but i've been relatively happy with the way those numbers look.

As for your possibilities:

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1) People are smarter at 20/40, less likely to call down with crap. They're showing fewer losers.

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if you are sitting with the right guys, this is not at all teh case. I used to check behind a pair of 3s on a 2348J board HU, now it's an eaaaaasy value bet b/c he'll call with K hi, and sometimes Q hi, and would absolutely have raised a 4, 8, or donked a J.

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2) People are smarter at 20/40, chasing me off of marginal hands that would win at showdown (bottom/mid pair, etc.) In other words, I'm folding winners.

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This, however, is definitely a concern. I *know* I fold alot of winners, i've had 1800 hand days where my WTSD is like 17%. But, I maximize value when I have a medium-weak strength hand so I think it makes up for bet-folding A-hi on semi-dangerous flops.

Variance is crazy at these games too.

Personally, I can't get my flush won@SD %age over 70, nor my straight won@SD over 75, nor my 3ofakind won@SD over 60, so i'm sure things will even out eventually. I'm playing the best poker of my life IMO, so i'm just making sure to get 5hrs a day in at the minimum.

PM me if you want to do a sweat session sometime.

Surf