Interesting ESPN article on trends "Separating Truth from Fiction"

[jedinite]

Starts here

Those new to handicapping should be aware of some of these trends. Primarily, in my opinion, the strength of % wins of teams who commit less turnovers. These are factors which can be included in to the handicapping of your games, especially in finding valuable underdogs (underdogs who are good at not turning the ball over, against a favored team who does turn the ball over more often). Look at Jacksonville at Cleveland this week - the Jags are taking the ball away on average once per game, and the Browns are giving the ball away an average of .5 per game. Despite Cleveland's traditionally strong record at home, and despite Jacksonville playing without their starting QB and starting RB, the Jag's turnover advantage over the browns is a significant factor in their being favored in this game.

Summarized:

Taken from the NFL's 2003 and 2004 regular-season statistics -- here are five leading sins of the game that are indisputably (did we mention amazingly?) and undeniably true, more often than not. Here, then, is the key to the matrix you never knew existed. The percentage in parenthesis refers to the probability of losing when committing that particular sin.

Five sins:

Sin No. 1: Trailing after the first quarter (75 percent lost)
Sin No. 2: Losing the turnover battle (81 percent lost)
Sin No. 3: Allowing a 100-yard runner (75 percent)
Sin No. 4: Allowing more sacks (70 percent)
Sin No. 5: Losing time of possession (67 percent)

And now the five myths:

Myth No. 1: Fewest penalties wins (54 percent)
Myth No. 2: Highest average per carry wins (55 percent)
Myth No. 3: No. 1 conference seed advances to Super Bowl (50 percent)
Myth No. 4: A 300-yard passer usually wins (46 percent)
Myth No. 5: A kick or punt return for a TD means a win (42 percent)

Here's a little more detail culled from each of the "sins"

Sin No. 1: Trailing after the first quarter (75 percent lost)

While so much emphasis is placed on the fourth quarter and a team's finishing power, it's really how you start the game that matters. Teams that found themselves trailing after the first quarter lost a staggering 75 percent of their games in '03-04.

Sin No. 2: Losing the turnover battle (81 percent)

This is a tried-and-true truism of the NFL -- what's surprising is the gravity of the number. Lose the turnover battle and you'll lose four games out of five.

Sin No. 3: Allowing a 100-yard runner (75 percent)

In 2004, teams that featured a 100-yard rusher had a collective winning record every single week. During Weeks 6-9, the overall record was an astounding 32-1.

Producing a 100-yard runner usually means that team has actually had the luxury of methodically handing the ball off. And thatsuggests the team is playing with a lead, which, in turn, means that passing is not a necessity.

Sin No. 4: Allowing more sacks (70 percent)

This statistic, upon reflection, fits into the matrix. The flip side of a 100-yard runner is a team desperate to catch up. When teams are forced to abandon the run, opposing defenses can rush the passer with abandon. This usually results in increased sacks and all the bad things that come with them.

Sin No. 5: Losing time of possession (67 percent)

Possession, they say, is nine-tenths of the law. But in today's NFL you'll have to settle for seven-tenths. OK, to split hairs, 6.7-tenths.

Dallas (33:30) leads the NFL with Kansas City (32:26) and Denver (32:21) second and third, respectively.