i think this is a surprisingly complex foxwoods hand,,,

[DarthIgnurnt]

[ QUOTE ]
Date / Time: 2005-11-15 15:37:00
Title: Chip Jett Eliminated on the Money Bubble
Jett shows pocket jacks, and Jacob shows Q-5.
When the flop came Q-7-5 ... Chip Jett is eliminated on the money bubble.


[/ QUOTE ]

There's your answer ... see Jacks no good. Easy fold.

I mean ... Using the information you have here, I think the EV of a push is negative, and not just slightly. While you will expect to gain chips, you are at such a chip disadvantage (avg chips = 67K, you = 10K or 12K or 22K or 0 based your decision), and the payout structure is such that the EV of your payout changes little (if at all) even if you double up.

And even if the decision to push was +EV (which it isn't), it's still not an easy decision for everyone.

I don't know who the player in question was. For me, 11K isn't life-changing, or even life-sweetening money, but it's not chicken sh*t either. Add in the confidence of cashing in a WPT event, and I fold even if it is slightly +EV.

Which it isn't.

Sklansky addresses this in one of his books (can't remember where).

If I offer you $1.02 for every time you correctly call a coin flip vs. $1.00 for me every time you incorrectly call it, and let you flip the coin as many times as you want forever, the slight amount in +EV makes this an easy decision.

How about if I offer you $102,000 vs. $100,000 for the same coin flip, but you can only flip it once.

A lot of people are in a position to take that bet instantly, including (apparently) a lot of posters here. Most people, including (apparently) me, aren't.