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Old 11-28-2005, 06:08 PM
W. Deranged W. Deranged is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 96
Default Re: River action...

[ QUOTE ]
Why didnt you raise the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is my general feeling that many small/medium stakes limit hold'em players greatly overestimate the value of non-nut flush draws.

Note:

1. If anyone else has a flush draw we're almost certainly drawing dead.

2. We have no other significant outs beyond the flush draw.

3. The multiway nature of the pot makes it more likely that someone has hit a hand and so less likely that you can get a free card. We are parlaying here: a bunch of players need to acquiesce to your plans to take a free card for it to happen.

Edits:

4. As Joe said, relative position is bad and makes it more likely that our raise will knock players out if EP three-bets.

5. While it is true that we would have an equity edge here if we had the nuts, if we only have 5 outs on average we no longer have a significant edge even in a five way pot. I'm not saying we need to discount that much usually, but we do need to discount our non-nut draw, probably as far down as 7 outs (instead of 9), and that puts us in a territory where other considerations (like the fact that our raise may knock others outs and so forth) probably swing this to a call.
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