Playing manly. 5/5 live

[Chaostracize]

I have about 3.5k, villain has me covered. Villain hasn't been in a lot of pots over the last few hours, and he's definitely been in no big hands. I don't remember ever seeing his cards at a showdown. I think he's pretty tight. UTG (contributor) raises to 30 UTG (this was pretty standard), UTG + 1 (solid regular) calls, I call with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. 1 call behind, then the villain calls somewhere in MP. 5 to the flop.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Pot = 160

Checked to me, I bet 125, villain calls, I don't sense any serious strength but I haven't seen him in many hands so I'm not sure what range to put him on. Everyone else gets out of the way.

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Pot = 410

I check (yuck?), he bets 200 after a moments consideration. I call. I still don't think he's that strong. But the Ks is still out there and I don't think I want to be playing a big pot here. I was considering this could be a set, I didn't think two pair would play like this. I was also playing loose and aggressively, so I thought he could be putting a move on me since I was picking up a lot of multiway pots with trash. Meh.

River: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Pot = 810.

I check (yuck?). My reasoning here was a couple of things. My turn check/call looked really weak, so I could assume he'd bet the river as a value bet and as a bluff since he would thinkg that if he had a spade he had the best hand or he could push me off a hand. I also just really, really felt like he was betting here. If this is the case, should I have bet hoping for a raise? I don't think I would have liked getting 3-bet here (I didn't). Villain bet 200, 1/4 of the pot, after a 5 second pause I check raise to 600.

My raise was pretty small in relation to the pot, but I don't think this guy was thinking that way, or why else would he bet so small on the river? I think if I raised to 800 I'd be blowing him off a medium spade and I wanted my line to look fishy enough that he'd call with 9-J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Villain fumes, then starts counting out his money furiously, then says "you must have the Q but I have to see it" and calls. Can anyone guess his hand?