NBA moneyline questions (and another)

[ohnonotthat]

No opinion on these two specific games but I have always preferred MLs to spreads in all sports.

Is it a coincidence that the only sport to do big $-line business is the books might well opt not to book if they had the option ?

As to your specific system however, if I understood you it souned like you were advocating betting favs laying small prices at home.

I have always thought (not sure whether past results bear this out) laying 180 instead of 3.5 or 250 instead of 5 was a recipe for disaster. There just aren't that many games where the favorite wins but fails to cover a small spread - this isn't football.

A 5 point favorite in BB is typically -220 or thereabouts on the ML; I have no stats to back this up but the math says that the ML wager is the better choice if the chance of a win-no-cover is 18% or greater. (Note: I am not saying to lay the 5; whether the team is a good bet or not, the necessity of an 18% disparity still applies).

5 point favs win but don't cover more than 1/6 of the time ?

Doesn't seem likely.

I'd love to hear from someone with stats to support or impeach this assumption.