80/160 hand against J.A. Sucker

[MNpoker]

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River c/r time.

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Why?

Seems to me there are two ways to get one more bet on the river.
- You bet he makes a crying call
- You check he makes a bluff bet

(If number 1 > number 2 then a bet is in order)

Other possibilities:
He has a ace (smaller or bigger) or some other hand that beats you (not sure how this is possible).
- You bet he raises you call (win or lose 2 bets)
Usually I would expect you win, but will be unwilling to risk a 3 bet.

- You check raise he 3 bets (Are you laying it down?). Lose 3 bets almost always.
Usually I would expect you lost.

I would do the hand combo thing but I find that the assumptions of creating what's possible is so wide that a 'feel' is better in this case than some numbers with potentially large errors.