Big draw OOP against a possible steal

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is 5.5sb. Hero is definitely behind at this point but Hero has ~35% (flop to river) equity, without a made hand.

If checked through, Hero is granted (by the current leading hand) his chance to make the best hand for free.

Hero will make his hand 19% by the turn.

19% of 5.5sb granted for free = .19*5.5 = 1.045sb.

Having this checked through is marvellous.

Now outside of callers and bettors the only other options are checking through or everyone folding to your bet.

Everyone folding to you bet wins 5.5sb.
Getting checked through wins 1.045sb.
So everyone needs to fold ~20% to have equal value.
I think in a field of 4 villians this is not likely.


[/ QUOTE ]
I think Wookie already has pointed it out, but this reasoning is flawed. Even if we bet we're having 19% equity. We don't lose our share of the pot by betting. What should be examined is whether or not a bet would be for value. Will we get 2 callers enough? What's the risk of getting raised ending up HU? How often will somebody else bet the flop for me?

I haven't considered a bet in this situation as a must. I consider both options when I'm in this situation, taking into account how loose my opponents are, my relative position to aggressive players and so forth. I think I'm probably more likely to bet this hand in a micro game. Against 4 players not having act yet I don't think our folding equity is huge. I think this bet should be made because we'll often get 2+ callers and that's more likely on a loose/passive micro table. But again, it's more about my reads than what limit I play.