Big draw OOP against a possible steal

[ QUOTE ]
your estimation that you will get EXACTLY 1 caller 60% of the time on a bet is just absurd.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was an example, not my estimation.



[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Does middle pair call your bet, but not bet it?
Does top pair only call this bet and not raise?
Does bottom pair call your bet, but not someone elses?


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm quoting these questions not to short-change your POV, but because - correct me if I'm wrong - it is the main crux of your argument.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is not the crux of my argument.

The crux of my argument was:

A bet here is a poor semibluff.
There are better ways to get value from this flop than betting out.


I've said all I can say and there are better poker players than me, who put forward both sides of the argument in the above Qtip link.

Enjoy.