AA river decision

[steveyz]

I think given this board, it would be hard for BB to laydown a smaller overpair. I'd given him a chance to call. I think chances that the goofball has you beat are extremely slim. I think if you raise, you will win 2 BBs most of the time and 4 BBs some of the times, and very very occasionally lose an extra 2 BBs. (i'm discounting those times where the goofball you 3-bets you on the river with a worse hand)

If you don't raise, you are guaranteeing only winning 2 BBs. So really, I guess it depends on your evaluation of the chances of BB calling with a smaller overpair vs chances of goofball having a better hand as well was chances of goofball folding to a river raise.

I don't know I guess my inclination that that people often discount the chance of BB calling 2 cold in a spot like this. Not to be results oriented here, but do you think if you were BB you could fold QQ to a river raise?