PFR and middle pair

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I think ~4 outs is more realistic (probably even generous)as the Q (and 2pr) outs could already be dead. Given 4 outs you need 11:1 and only getting 9:1. You could say you're pretty much guaranteed 1 exta BB on the river but it still doesn't make up for the times Hero makes his hand and is still beaten.

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Imagining that a queen out is somehow dead is a bit MUBS-y to me. I don't give villain credit for a set this soon, and I certainly don't give him credit for KQ. I'll grant that AK is a possibility, but I would have expected that to 3-bet preflop, so I'm not so convinced that it's likely. Remember that we're assuming that the turn is *NOT* a jack or ten, so you're not worried about the straight falling if you hit your ace.

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I'm not giving villian credit for anything yet either but I think if he RAISES my turn bet I can start to discount my outs considerably.