welcome to the rock.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron, you're completely right that if Villain has been running very cold for 150 hands that AKo/s is a possibility. Regardless, I still don't see how you're raising for value. If we assume Villain's range will include any AK combo, suited or unsuited, without being discounted, our equity is around 30%:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

19,870,449,984 games 150.337 secs 132,172,718 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 30.2506 % [ 00.30 00.00 ] { JJ }
Hand 2: 53.9030 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 15.8463 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { random }

We go to around 23% if he'll only raise AKs from this position. Of course, the limper will likely have a better than random hand as well.

...

Unless he's raising more than this hand range, I can't see how we get value out of a 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this is where we get back to the whole question of how reliable your stats are after 150 hands. It's very possible that villain is actually raising somewhere between 5-7% of his hands, but we've only seen him raise once or twice because he's not getting those hands. If you had a read to suggest that he's very rocky (and I do mean a read), then you can infer from that information that he's not as likely to raise those hands. The value of knowing he open-limped QQ in one particular hand is far more greater than knowing that he's raised twice in 150 hands.

Edit: Similarly, if you've seen him raise 99 UTG one hand, then you can infer that your 3-bet probably has good value.