ZeeJustin Hand Discussion

[ZeeJustin]

I don't remember exactly what I was thinking at the time I played this hand, but it probably went something like this:

Matt opened for 400 utg. MattZ is not a regular, and didn't seem tight. 4x BB prolly indicates he wants to take the pot down preflop. 77-JJ, KQ, AJ, AQ are all likely. Hands better than those are certianly possible, but slightly less likely.

Purr is a good player. He probably thinks the same of MattZ's range. He probably expects a call, in which case he has TT, AQ+, but it wouldn't surprise me if he occassionally makes this hand with A5s or 22 or something, although I would not be a fan of that play and don't expect to see it too often.

If I call all-in, I expect MattZ to fold more often than not.

Take the worst case scenario out of all of these:
Matt has 77, KQ, AJ+ (take away what I said about better hands being less likely than the mediocre hands for the time being)
Purr has TT, AQ+ (with no chance of making a play with worse hands)
Matt calls with everything but KQ, AJ and AQ.

This is pretty much the worst case scenario for me, but IMO, the math would still indicate a call. This is a mathematical scenario, and don't think it's not for one second.

If anyone takes the time to do some math, please PM me a link to your post and I'll take a look and respond to the results.

I'm surprised this hand came up without anyone actually taking the time to ask me about it.

Lesson to the wise: I make mistakes often, and also make plays for weird reasons that observers won't be aware of. Don't automatically assume anything I do is right. (That being said, this is IMO a straightforward, albeit close, decision that I don't regret).