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Question for Raising on the River
Had an interesting SSNL hand early in a $10 buy-in, one table online satellite the other day which made me think about my River strategy with a strong hand that is not the nuts out against possible draws.
Hero is on the button with $2400. Villain is BB with $1700 and is observed to chase draws as well as bluff against big pots. Blinds are $15/$30. Pre-flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Foled to Hero, Hero raises 3x BB, Villain calls Flop: ($195) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Villain checks, Hero bets $100, Villain calls. Turn: ($395) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Villain checks, Hero bets $200, Villain calls. River: ($795) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Villain checks, Hero bets $200, Villain folds. Obviously I won the hand, which is good, but I'm wondering if my River bet was a flawed play. Sklansky argues in Hold'em Poker for Advanced Players that you shouldn't bet the River unless you feel a better than 55% chance you hold the best hand... in Theory of Poker he goes a bit further and says you shouldn't bet on the River if you feel a hand that calls has you beat... Does this advice apply to SSNL Hold'em? The A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] on the river completes many straight and flush draws... if I got check raised I'd almost have to call (given that he's a bluffer) but don't exactly like my odds... can anyone out there help me analyze my play in this hand? In retrospect it looks like the guy was on a spade draw, but I'm not sure I had any way to tell at the time. Thanks, Hungry J0e |
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