welcome to the rock.

[Aaron W.]

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But this guy's numbers suggest that he doesn't raise AK here; even if we assume a decent deviation of like 3% true pfr AKs basically isn't in his hand range. Plus these super-tp types are usually more inclined to raise with big pairs than big overs regardless of if they're in the top x% of hands.

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1% PFR is about 13.25 hands (1326 total starting hands). There are 6 pocket aces and 6 6 pocket kings. That makes up most of the 1%. If you give the HUD a 3% error, he could be raising as many as about 53 hands, and you'll have a tough time reaching that number without including AK. In fact, you'll have a tough time getting up to 2% (given that you have JJ) without getting some AK hands thrown in.

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I'm not sure that suggesting a 3% margin of error is appropriate. This is a statistical question: What is the likelyhood of this sample being representative of the entire data set. It is quite possible that his best hand in this data set, the one that he decided to raise with was AJo. More accurately, we need a figure like: what is the probability of having AA-QQ not present in random sample of 150 hands. This should help us decide to make the call. I'm chintzing out on math again, because it's 5 p.m...time to go home.

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I'm not a statistician, but here's something to consider: In political polls, a sample size of 1500 or so ends up with an error around 3%. Our sample size is much smaller than 1500.