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Old 11-13-2005, 11:29 PM
party36master party36master is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Party 3/6
Posts: 74
Default QQ Turn (Warning: Math)

Foxwoods 10/20- 10 handed

BB is solid player, watches the game, and I haven't seen him get too out of line.
My table image is aggressive.

I have QQ in early position.

One limper to me, I raise, MP coldcalls, BB calls, limper calls.

Flop: 9,6,2 rainbow (8.6 SB) 4 players
BB checks, limper checks, I bet, MP calls, BB calls, limper folds.

Turn: K (5.7 BB) 3 players
BB checks, I bet, MP folds, BB raises, I ??
I am getting 8.7 to 1.

I think at first glance this looks like I probably have 2 outs, and I should fold.
But I think that the math justifies a call, taking into account reasonable hands he might be bluffing on.

Hand range for BB:
K9, K6s, K2s, 96s, 92s (I'll ignore since this is debatable), 22, 66, 99.
Since I have an aggressive image, I'll add AA and KK.
I'll add 7,8 played this way 1 out of 8 times he gets 7,8 (this might even be low).
I'll also add 77 and 88 played this way 1 out of 24 times.

I have 0 outs to KK (3 combinations)
I have 2 outs to AA (6 combinations)
I have 2 outs to 22,66,99 (9 combinations total)
I have 2 outs to K9, K6s, and K2s (9+2+2=13 combinations total)
I have 8 outs to 96s (2 combinations total)
I have 38 "outs" to 78 (16/8= 2 combinations)
I have 44 "outs" to 77 and 88 (12/24= 0.5 combination)

This hand is valued at 4.8 outs, and is a call.
Thoughts?
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