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QQ Turn (Warning: Math)
Foxwoods 10/20- 10 handed
BB is solid player, watches the game, and I haven't seen him get too out of line. My table image is aggressive. I have QQ in early position. One limper to me, I raise, MP coldcalls, BB calls, limper calls. Flop: 9,6,2 rainbow (8.6 SB) 4 players BB checks, limper checks, I bet, MP calls, BB calls, limper folds. Turn: K (5.7 BB) 3 players BB checks, I bet, MP folds, BB raises, I ?? I am getting 8.7 to 1. I think at first glance this looks like I probably have 2 outs, and I should fold. But I think that the math justifies a call, taking into account reasonable hands he might be bluffing on. Hand range for BB: K9, K6s, K2s, 96s, 92s (I'll ignore since this is debatable), 22, 66, 99. Since I have an aggressive image, I'll add AA and KK. I'll add 7,8 played this way 1 out of 8 times he gets 7,8 (this might even be low). I'll also add 77 and 88 played this way 1 out of 24 times. I have 0 outs to KK (3 combinations) I have 2 outs to AA (6 combinations) I have 2 outs to 22,66,99 (9 combinations total) I have 2 outs to K9, K6s, and K2s (9+2+2=13 combinations total) I have 8 outs to 96s (2 combinations total) I have 38 "outs" to 78 (16/8= 2 combinations) I have 44 "outs" to 77 and 88 (12/24= 0.5 combination) This hand is valued at 4.8 outs, and is a call. Thoughts? |
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