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Rebuilding a Burned Bankroll
I know the topic of bankroll has been covered a zillion times on here and I know the search function well, but please forgive me for bringing this up as this is a little bit different than what the normal bankroll post, as there is a specified objective that I need to hit by December 2006 with as little risk as possible.
First, history: I was a live game professional when the WPT just started airing...I played 10/20 in some very soft games and was making about 1k/week....somewhere around 1.5BB per hour. I quit being a pure professional when I took a job about six months after graduating college (about August 2003). It offered security that I didn't have at the time (I had a 250BB bankroll and no backup for my monthly nut). I now know that variance can be either a great demon or a great savior. Still, 2004 saw my best year as a poker player (even though I was playing semi-pro). I built my bankroll up and was making just under 1.4 BB. It was a good year with a $5K+ January and only 2 minor losing months for the whole year (90% live play). This year started off OK with a +1800 in the first part of January. Then, I had to take some time off from work until April (I'm an accountant) and so I ended up starting back in May (I dropped $1500 playing 2/5 NL in the meantime). I had a good May at the 15/30 on Party. I was plus $4K. Then, I went to Vegas for the WSOP in June (vacation) and the bottom fell out in 10 days. I lost 70% of $10K playing cash game NL with some incredibly bad beats....AA vs an AJ bluff on a rag flop....turn and river both rags....-2K and Js9s push by me on a Ts8s rag flop vs. 7s6s who called and caught a pair....just trying to say that I was 70% unlucky and 30% was my fault. No doubt, I played way over my head as I shold have had $20K plus for a $1K buy-in NL game...the bad beats were just a risk I took and lost at it. After that, I had some significant personal expenses (about $2,200) and my bankroll was nearly wiped out. I had never kept more than a 300BB bankroll and I paid the price. (Please guys, have more than that as I enjoy most of the discussion in this forum). I dropped down in limits and have stuck to internet play almost entirely since then. I started low to get used to multitabling (which I had not done more than 3 tables prior to this) and I can do 6 tables comfortably. I have also purchased a 2001FP to go along with my laptop to help keep from timing out or making mistakes. I have also worked in the tighter lower limits where average VPIP roams from 15-25 and I have reworked my game for the tighter, more aggressive play online. Now, I am working from the assumption that I should be able to make 1BB/100. If I can do this, I need to know what the best path to take with the least risk is in order to reach my goal. My Goal: I need to make $72K within a given amount of time. I have calculated how the time and how many tables I can reasonably play (considering the time it takes to join tables and otherwise) and have come up with a table hours figure. I need to make it by December 2006. I have come up with a schedule below which consists of 10hours per week...4 tables per hour...and it includes the hours that I should be able to play in a month (busy season versus non-busy season for accountants) and it includes vacation. I need this money in order to start my own practice. I want to keep a legit poker bankroll to keep my earnings up to at least $3K per month while I get my practice going. I have presented the details in a schedule below. (BTW, if any of you need help with your taxes, holla). I am looking to see if I am mistaken at all with this schedule. Please feel free to ask questions if you don't understand something. If I need to make goal, and I plan on snowballing back from the depths at 5/10 to 10/20 to 15/30 and finally to 30/60...what is the maximum bankroll that I can have before jumping to then next level if I have 2,648 table-hours (actually 662 hours X 4 tables per hour average) to do this? I have ascertained that I will have to jump to 10/20 at 500 BB and to 15/30 and 30/60 at 600 BB. Is there a better way to do this? I have this in an excel spreadsheet but it will not post properly (if anyone knows how to post a spreadsheet that is formatted, please tell me and I will post mine). BTW, poker is great for entrepreneurs. EDITED: I added "a job" to the first sentence of the second paragraph. |
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