Stars $500k hand w/TP against another big stack

[DonT77]

Hey Lloyd - Interesting hand.

I think there are a few reasons to call and a few reasons to fold-

reasons to call: you're getting 2.3:1 with TP (which is probably +EV given his range), winning gives you a nice stack, losing doesn't bust you, he could be representing the an Ace thinking that you don't have one - especially if you've been CB'ing most of the time, and lastly why would he push a really strong hand like a set or AK here - as the flush draw is remote given the suit of the Ace on board.

reasons to fold: you have him covered and you'll be getting 2.3:1 on a call - so he's gotta think the chances of you calling him is pretty strong with a decent hand like AQ, AJ, AT etc. and after all he is "putting his tourney life at stake" [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img], if you call and lose you'll be short-stacked (~5BBs) and may not make the money, and his LP PF call is suspicious from an aggressive player - like a pair, or a slowplayed monster.

This is a close decision. Personally, I might have folded and waited for a better opportunity since you are nearing the bubble and that is a spot where cEV and $EV diverge. I think if his stack was like twice my stack or more - I might give a bully bluff more credit and be slightly more likely to call, but given that you have him covered and the pot odds he is giving you I tend to give his raise more credence since I tend to see fewer all-in bluffs near the bubble. JMO.