$55's... I wrote the book on FPS

[bigt439]

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Your reasoning is all good, but you will be mis-playing against:

People who (especially having checked the flop) will only bet or call a bet with AK or PP if they hit.

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I think almost anyone puts in some cash with a PP if I check that flop. In fact I think it would be pretty damn weak to fold out second pair after the flop went check check, and party certainly isn't notorious for weak players in the first couple of levels.

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or

People who will call down some bets, and either wouldn't bluff or would only make a weak bluff.

or

flush draw.

But, you know all this.

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These are much more relevant IMO, but this is all relative to how often I think I'm up against these players and how much value I think I get when I'm not. Which is I guess part of this post.