Pacific Poker increased the rake to $4.

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They may or may not notice it. They'll notice they're losing faster, but they could just as easily think they're unlucky or it's rigged even more

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Absolutely, in the short run the losses will be attributed to bad luck or such.

In the long run, however, if the poor players consistently loose at a higher rate than at other card rooms there will be a migration of poor players to rooms with a lower rake, just as when there was a migration of good players away from partpoker.com to skins that offered rakeback.

A high rake harms the ability of a card room to attract and maintain a base of players regardless of skill level.

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But will they know that it's specifically the rake increases that are killing them? Might they think they've gotten really bad cards for awhile or they're just not any good?

I agree with you in principle, but I do not know how to measure the practical knowledge of this large segment of the online playing population. Not to mention that inertia is always easy.