11 minute 2/4 video up for review

[crazygoose]

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is CO with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $3.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, MP2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6 BB

Villain is a 17/12 over 100+ hands. Combos of AA, QQ, JJ, TT that hold a diamond: 12 + combos of AK that hold Ad: 15 + combos of KQ that hold Qd: 18. Combos that don't hold any diamonds: 6*5 PPs: 24 + AK: 33 + KQ: 47. If I need a flush to win I am getting 1:6 on the turn (maybe 1:7 if he check calls when the diamonds hit but not likely). He will win 3/4 times when I don't hit my flush. I will win 1/4 * .6(number of times he doesnt have diamond) equals .15. I am getting 1:6.7. Therefore I think a fold is correct or very marginal. This includes the fact that villain won't bet that turn with AQ given I raised preflop. These calculations may be rough but I think they are good enough to justify a fold.