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#22
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[ QUOTE ]
I may be stupid but I don't see why it's an easy fold. If you win you get about $60 and it costs you about $23 to call so you're getting 60/23 odds at two chances at a 4.1 to 1 dog. So if you win when you make the flush it's a good deal. So the question here is: What are the chances that they are on a heart flush draw? (except for 34h which you beat) The hand I'd be most afraid of is AhXh I don't think someone would bet all in on a dangerous straight making texture with KhXh. I don't think they would limp in with AhKh or AhQh would they? Would the first player bet $60 all in with a AhXh? Probably not. For the second all in player, who calls without thinking ... it's a mistake to call all in with AhXh. So I'm not putting him on AhXh. The sb who checked and called ... is getting 2:1 to put all in so he has pot odds to call with AhXh. But wouldn't he bet his nut flush draw? Plus your reads say they don't bet all in unless they have monsters. Nope I'm calling here. [/ QUOTE ] This is much more along the lines of what I was thinking during my post. While I sitll fold because I hate the idea of getting my money in drawing dead to the higher flush draw, at least this reasoning proves it isn't an easy fold in my mind. I am FULLY aware of what LotteryLarry was trying to say, and I respect what he is saying. However, I think even armed with the knowledge you may not have the best hand, how do you put that into a number? Clearly derick thinks--with reasoning--that a call is acceptable, so saying "oh its an easy fold, what an idiot this OP is" is ignorant in my mind. That was my point. Nothing against LL or others who tried to explain it to me, but I already understand that you could be drawing dead. |
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