#31
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Re: Flopped da\' nuts - how to get value?
I know it's a riskier approach, but given the stack sizes I think it's justified. If you take the lead to try to get his stack in, you're going to have to either push the flop, or do something like raise it to $100, then 1/2 pot both turn and river to get him all-in. If this guy is the rock TWP says he is, and you take either of these lines, I think he's going to get verrrry suspicious.
There's a percentage chance he calls a flop push; we don't know what that is. There's also a percentage chance that, if you play on, turn and river cards kill you; I agree that 50% by the river is a good estimate (I got 35% by the river just for board pairing). So you can argue about the chances either way. But what tips it for me is that we basically KNOW villain's cards, so we should be able to add value by outplaying him. |
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